On February 2, 1887, residents of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, inaugurated the first official Groundhog Day, seeking a rodent’s insight into the arrival of spring. Despite advancements in meteorology, our ability to predict the timing of seasons remains limited, according to Rob Guralnick, curator of biodiversity informatics at the Florida Museum of Natural History.

"We can't generate good forecasts for whether spring will arrive early or late nearly as well as we can predict the weather," Guralnick explained.

While weather patterns influence the start and end of seasons, the responses of plants and animals to these patterns, known as phenology, are equally critical. Meteorologists can reliably predict temperature months in advance, but forecasting when trees will begin leafing across their range is far more complex. Climate change further complicates these predictions.

However, a recent study published in Communications Earth & Environment introduces a new approach to seasonal forecasting. By improving existing methods and incorporating data on how quickly areas warm in spring, researchers were able to project changes in the timing of leaf and flower production over more than 150 years.

Spring Arrivals Now Weeks Earlier

The study revealed that U.S. plant species are flowering three to four weeks earlier on average compared to 150 years ago. This discovery stemmed from the rediscovery of a 19th-century report containing thousands of phenological observations of plants and animals across the eastern United States. The report, created under the Smithsonian Institution, represents the first phenology-based citizen science project in the country.

Using these historical data, the researchers tested their equations by predicting changes in plant growth cycles over time. Comparing historical observations from the 1850s with modern data, they found that plants are producing leaves and flowers significantly earlier.

"This is the oldest dataset we have for broad-scale phenology, and the change between then and now is striking," Guralnick noted.

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Theresa Crimmins, director of the USA National Phenology Network and co-author of the study, discovered the report while researching phenology for a book chapter. Unlike many references that summarize data, this report contained detailed records of when plants produced leaves, flowers, and fruit across regions from Michigan to Florida and as far west as California.

The original dataset had been delayed due to Civil War-era document production but eventually provided invaluable insight into historical biological cycles.

Dramatic Shifts Documented

Testing the equations with modern observations for 18 plant species, the researchers confirmed substantial changes. "All 18 species advanced their leaf growth and flowering phenology," Crimmins said. "On average, it’s happening more than three weeks earlier, with some species flowering over a month earlier."

While global warming’s role in earlier springs and longer summers is well-documented, historical datasets like this provide rare confirmation of how drastically biological patterns have shifted over time. The findings underscore the importance of historical data in understanding the profound impacts of climate change on natural systems.