A recent study highlights economic inequality as a critical factor in the erosion of democratic norms and institutions. Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, this large-scale cross-national analysis reveals that economic inequality is one of the strongest predictors of democratic backsliding. Even established, wealthy democracies are vulnerable if they experience high levels of inequality.

According to Susan Stokes, a professor at the University of Chicago and co-author of the study, the research team aimed to understand why democracy has been declining in recent decades. "Globalization and deregulation, which have been major agendas in many countries, have resulted in growing income inequality," said Stokes, the Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Service Professor in the Department of Political Science.

The study focused on political leaders who, upon taking office, began undermining democratic processes. The researchers sought to determine if economic inequality was contributing to political polarization and public disillusionment with "elite" institutions, which in turn fueled the erosion of democratic structures.

Using data from the Swedish project Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem), the researchers analyzed cases of democratic erosion, excluding typical instances where leaders test the limits of executive power. They found a significant statistical connection between high levels of income inequality and the occurrence of democratic backsliding.

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Additionally, the study traced the link between inequality and political polarization, a known driver of democratic decay. The more polarized a society is, the more willing portions of the public become to overlook actions by leaders that attack press freedom, the judiciary, and other democratic institutions.

"Backsliding leaders exploit inequality and deepen polarization by stoking public grievances," said Stokes. "They prey on feelings of alienation and the perception of being left behind." These leaders often find different scapegoats for inequality: left-wing populists might target corporations, while right-wing ethno-nationalists may blame immigrants or outsiders.

The study also examined whether the age of a democracy impacts its resilience, but found no evidence that older democracies were less susceptible to backsliding. The level of institutionalization also did not appear to be a protective factor. However, the researchers observed "contagion effects," where leaders in backsliding democracies tend to influence each other.

While some in the U.S. may view the country's challenges as unique, Stokes emphasized that democratic erosion is a broader global phenomenon. "This trend likely results from a combination of globalization, deregulation, and neoliberal policies, which have reshaped political systems since the mid-20th century," she explained. "It's crucial to understand the structural factors at play."

Stokes concluded that addressing economic inequality could strengthen democracies, as policies aimed at reducing income disparity might also help preserve democratic institutions.